Notable industry trends throughout 2024 include the continued growth of the specialty market. Across the industry, specialty medications now account for an estimated 54% of spending which has been driven mainly by the immunology/anti-inflammatory class with medications like Humira and Stelara as well as oncology. In the non-specialty space, the anti-obesity category leads both the long and short term market growth. Through June of this year Wegovy, a GLP-1 agonist used for chronic weight management, has shown the greatest year over year retail sales growth at 124.2%, however Ozempic, a GLP-1 agonist used to treat type 2 diabetes, still leads the market in overall retail sales at 25.7 billion (MAT June 2024). Positively impacting the diabetes category, we have seen a decrease in insulin sales by approximately 48% since Q4 of 2023 as a result of several manufacturers lowering their list price, although prescription count has remained unchanged.
Through June of this year the market has experienced 26 new drug launches, immunology/anti-inflammatory, digestive and infectious disease are the top areas in 2024 accounting for 45% of new product launches. This differs slightly as compared to 2023 in which new product launches were led by the oncology category representing 25% of new product launches. Based on first year of sales from launch month, through June of this year the top three launches (Octagam, Cabtreo, Balfaxar) by sales combined hit ~1.2 billion but pales in comparison to the top launch of 2023, Zepbound, a GLP-1 agonist used in chronic weight management which achieved 2.6 billion in its first year sales. As new drugs come to market with higher annual treatment costs, we see the entire generic sales market at 54.7 billion remain relatively unchanged since 2018, however the combined sales of brand drugs equivalent to the entire generic market has decreased from 7 to just 2 (Ozempic and Humira) over the course of the last 6 years.
As we look towards the future we predict that oncology and obesity will continue to drive spend through 2028 while we expect a slowing in the diabetes and immunology/anti-inflammatory category. The impact of exclusivity losses reached $75 billion on a net revenue basis over the past 5 years including a large biosimilar impact. The forecasted impact over the upcoming years is now estimated at 93.6 billion.
